Official ridership forecast implausibly high?

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Eurorapid
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Joined: 17. Apr 2021, 23:08

Official ridership forecast implausibly high?

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Reference data suggest that the official ridership forecast is more than a factor of ten too high for the proposed Baltimore-Washington maglev
by Owen A Kelley | posted in: Greenbelt News, Transportation
Source https://www.greenbeltonline.org/maglev-ridership/
Accessed 2021-05-21 |

Opponents of the project have presented their own ridership calculation for Baltimore - Washington. As a result, they describe the official forecasts for the number of travelers as tenfold overstated. One of the key assumptions of the opponents is that only 2% of the population would have the financial means to afford this trip on the Maglev.


Opponents' ridership calculation for Baltimore - Washington.
2021-05-21 USA maglev oponents' ridership calculation
2021-05-21 USA maglev oponents' ridership calculation
Quote from https://www.greenbeltonline.org/maglev-ridership/
Accessed 2021-05-21
.
The analysis in the present article finds that the official ridership forecast is implausibly high. The official forecast is more than an order of magnitude higher than what reference datasets can support.

The official forecast is 20.6 million one-way maglev trips that would be made each year by travelers diverted from other forms of transportation. In contrast, various reference datasets examined in the present article suggest that a much smaller number of diverted travelers is more likely: 0.32 million one-way maglev trips per year. A diverted traveler is someone who would make the trip by another form of transportation if the maglev were not built. The draft impact statement reports that the great majority of maglev travelers would be diverted from other forms of transportation.

If the official ridership forecast is higher than warranted, then it would prevent the draft impact statement from helping the public and elected officials evaluate the harm and benefits associated with the proposed maglev. The draft impact statement relies on the ridership forecast to derive its estimate for, among other things, the maglev’s revenue, the solvency of the maglev operator, the air-pollution reduction, the road-congestion improvement, and the jobs created by maglev operations.
Quote from https://www.greenbeltonline.org/maglev-ridership/
Accessed 2021-05-21
2021-05-21 USA maglev ridership too high?
2021-05-21 USA maglev ridership too high?
Source https://www.greenbeltonline.org/maglev-ridership/
Accessed 2021-05-21
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