Rough / automated English translation of a Japanese comment by Keiichiro Otsuka on the Baltimore - Washington Maglev Project (Japanese perspective).
Original text: https://www.risvel.com/column/1023 Accessed: 2021-08-07
Rough English translation of a Japanese comment on the Baltimore - Washington Maglev Project (Japanese perspective).If JR Tokai, which is constructing the Linear Central Shinkansen (between Shinagawa, Tokyo and Nagoya), grants its technology to build a superconducting linear line between Washington, the capital of the United States (U.S.), and Baltimore, Maryland, the project cost will be around $10 billion to $12 billion (about 1.11 trillion to 1.33 trillion yen). It is estimated that the cost of the project will be around $10-12 billion (about 1.11-1.33 trillion yen). What are the chances of realizing the "super express of dreams" using the most advanced technology? Also, how much of an economic effect can be expected from connecting Baltimore, which has the fourth highest rate of violent crime in the United States?
According to the concept of a linear line connecting Washington and Baltimore, the aim is to link the two cities, which are about 60 kilometers apart, in 15 minutes. In Washington, the starting point would be Mount Vernon Square, which is connected to the Yellow Line and Green Line of the Washington Metro subway system, while Baltimore is considering establishing a station at Camden Yards in the center of the city or at Cherry Hill to the south.
The Penn Line of MARC, a suburban railroad under the jurisdiction of the Maryland Department of Transportation, [...] connects Washington Union Station with Penn Station in the center of Baltimore in about an hour, so the travel time will be reduced by about a quarter.
The linear line is also planned to have an intermediate station near the Baltimore-Washington International Airport (BWI Airport). If this is realized, it will be possible to connect Baltimore in about 5 minutes and Washington in about 10 minutes.
Will users choose linear?
[...] BWI attracts passengers because its air tickets are generally cheaper than those of Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, which is located near the center of Washington.
Thus, it can be said that many of the passengers at BWI Airport are budget-conscious consumers. In spite of this, they are willing to pay higher fares to save time, overriding the next-generation streetcar (LRT), the MARC Penn Line, Amtrak, or the MARC Penn Line and Amtrak trains that connect to Washington Union Station in less than 30 minutes from downtown Baltimore. In the case of the Yamanashi Linear Test Line, it will take about 15 minutes to reach the station.
[...]
What is the purpose of going to Baltimore?
Given that Baltimore is a medium-sized city with an estimated population of 593,490 as of July 2019 (according to the Department of Commerce), it is questionable how much demand there will be.
On the other hand, a 15-minute commute each way would be an easy commute. Is there a possibility that the government employees who are gathering in Washington will move to Baltimore? When I asked a transportation industry insider, he said that even if a linear line were to open, "unless the problems of Baltimore, such as poor security and the loss of vitality due to the hollowing out of the city, are resolved, there will be limited demand for housing.
Neighborhood Scout, a real estate information website, ranked the city fourth in its 2021 ranking of the most dangerous cities in the U.S., which covers cities with a population of 25,000 or more.
The city has a violent crime rate of 19.0 murders and robberies per 1,000 residents, which means that one out of every 53 residents is at risk of being involved in a violent crime. This is much higher than the overall rate of 4.54 per capita in Maryland. Overshadowed by public safety issues, which are the lifeline of our lives, Baltimore is not an attractive residential area.
[...]
Baltimore has a limited number of tourist attractions that can attract visitors. Certainly, the Inner Harbor area in the center of the city has many attractions, and the Oriole Park at Camden Yards, home of the Baltimore Orioles, a baseball team in the American League, has a strong presence.
There is also the National Aquarium, where nocturnal sharks such as the tiger shark, which lives in the Indo-Pacific region, are bred, and the Maryland Science Museum, where dinosaur skeletons can be seen. However, most of these are tourist facilities that Marylanders visit on day trips. There is no need to take a linear train from Washington, D.C., because you can visit them by car or by public transportation that is currently running.
[...]
In this way, the necessity of the Washington-Baltimore linear project is questionable, and the economic benefits do not seem to be worth the investment of more than 1 trillion yen.
Original text: Keiichiro Otsuka https://www.risvel.com/column/1023 Accessed: 2021-08-07