[JP] The main difficulties in implementing MAGLEV

[Miss Maglev]

JR Central has abandoned its plan to launch the Linear Chuo Shinkansen between Shinagawa and Nagoya by 2027, pushing the possible opening to 2034 or later. This decision comes as it becomes clear that the construction in the Shizuoka section, which has yet to receive a construction permit, would take over ten years. Although attention has focused on Shizuoka's response, the project faces other significant challenges, including local coordination and technical hurdles.

Journalist Hideki Kashida points out that there are other areas besides Shizuoka where completion could take more than ten years. As of March 2024, JR Central has acquired 75% of the necessary land for the section between Shinagawa and Nagoya, but in some parts of Kanagawa and Yamanashi prefectures, strong opposition from landowners makes acquisition uncertain.

At least five lawsuits from residents along the line have occurred. One lawsuit in Tokyo seeking the cancellation of the Linear project's construction permit was dismissed in 2023, while another in Minami-Alps, Yamanashi, seeking to halt construction, is expected to be decided soon. With a focus on community collaboration, JR Central cannot ignore local sentiments, and prolonged litigation could impact project progress.

Technical challenges are also significant. In North Shinagawa, Tokyo, tunneling work that was supposed to progress 300 meters in six months has been repeatedly interrupted due to equipment malfunctions, and after two and a half years, it is still only halfway completed. In Nakatsugawa, Gifu, a tunneling accident in October 2021 during blasting operations led to a rockfall that injured two workers. Future work involves tunneling at depths exceeding 1,000 meters, increasing the difficulty.

Despite these issues, JR Central announced on April 4 that the completion of high bridges in Yamanashi's Kofu and Chuo cities and Iida, Nagano, is expected by 2031. Delays are primarily due to challenges with soft ground and local coordination. While acknowledging delays beyond the originally planned 2027 opening, JR Central maintains these are within the scope of delays already expected from the Shizuoka section, suggesting no direct link to further postponements. However, Kashida criticizes this, accusing the company of blaming delays on Shizuoka to deflect criticism.

Regarding financial implications, JR Central plans to fund the Linear's construction with existing corporate funds supplemented by borrowed money, assuming sound management. SMBC Nikko Securities' senior analyst Hiroki Kawashima notes that there are substantial risks of cost increases due to the extended construction period and unexpected issues in large-scale civil engineering projects. Indeed, by April 2021, the estimated total cost for the Shinagawa-Nagoya section had been revised from approximately 5.52 trillion yen to 7.04 trillion yen, due to complicated construction responses and enhanced earthquake measures. However, the delay does not seem to cause immediate financial distress for JR Central.

Info based on translated news from Mainichi Shinbun: https://mainichi.jp/articles/20240510/k ... 20/157000c Accessed 2025-05-11